September 28, 2004
Do undecided voters break for the challenger?
When pollsters interpret results for a race involving an incumbent, most are at least aware of a phenomenon observed for telephone surveys over the last 20 or 30 years: Voters who are still undecided on the very last poll tend to "break” disproportionately for the challenger. The two most important posts on this subject are the following:
Also, click on this link to display short excerpts of all of the posts concerning the incumbent rule in reverse chronological order (most recent first).
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