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October 31, 2004

The MP Reader Survey

As I mentioned in the last post, I created a short online survey about this site that you can fill out by clicking this link. If you have read this blog, I would appreciate it if you would take 3-5 minutes and compete the survey. It will not track respondent identities, and as such, your participation is completely anonymous and confidential.

Why a reader survey now?

After the election, I need to do some thinking about the future of this blog. I am a pollster, after all, and it is hard for me to think about anything without survey data.

Since some of you have already asked via email, however, let me be clear: I am certainly not planning to use responses to this survey to try to predict how many of you will return in the future. I have no illusions: Most of you are obsessed with polls right now because of the election. The traffic to this site will fall off big time right after the election, and I will have all sorts of hard numbers on that.

However, I am very curious about the snapshot of who is reading this blog right now, why, how you got here and what you think about it. I'd also want to use the survey to take a closer look at those who think they might want to return every now and then, even at times when an election is months or eyars away.

One last point for those of you who miss no irony: This survey is certainly NOT based on a random sample. It is what some call a "convenience" sample; a survey that will reflect nothing more than the views of those who choose to complete it. I expect that the respondents will be hugely biased toward regular readers. In this case, however, regular readers are the universe I care about most.

So, again, if you have found this site useful, please take a moment and complete the survey. If you have problems with the survey, please email me. Feel free to post comments or email them (but I will not be able to answer much mail until after the election).

The last big post on likely voter models coming soon...

Related Entries - MP Housekeeping

Posted by Mark Blumenthal on October 31, 2004 at 03:09 PM in MP Housekeeping | Permalink

Comments

Saw this at MSNBC Hardbloggers. Do you have any information on Zogby's methodology with regard to cell phones? I thought it was impossible to poll cell phone users.


Zogby's cell phone poll is favoring Kerry (Joe Trippi)


Finally, someone has done a SMS Text Messaging poll of cell phone users
between the ages of 18 and 29. Last night, John Zogby conducted the survey
in conjunction with Rock the Vote and the results revealed a 15% lead for
John Kerry over George Bush among these voters. Kerry had 55% with Bush
garnering 40% of those surveyed.

I've been looking at the data from polls in state after state- and there is
a common pattern in most of them. Among voters over the age of thirty, Bush
or Kerry (depending on the state) hold a very slim advantage. Among voters
under the age of thirty- and in just about every state- Kerry holds a
significant advantage over Bush. So if this is true, if among those over
30 it's a dead heat or Bush has a slight advantage, then why with Kerry's
huge advantage among those under 30 just about everywhere, is that advantage
not enough to show him in the lead in national and state polls?

The reason in my view is that pollsters are using old turn-out models for
younger voters, and are failing to see the increased intensity among these
voters, and therefore are likely to be surprised on Tuesday night. It is
now becoming increasingly clear to me that if John Kerry wins on Tuesday it
will be due to an unprecedented turnout among younger voters.

Using Florida as an example:

Zogby statewide has the race 49% Kerry to 47% for Bush.

Among voters 29 years old or younger, it's Kerry 63% and Bush 24%

Among voters over 50 years old its Kerry 44% and Bush 51%

With a statistical dead heat among all voters between 30 and 50 years of
age.

If there is a higher than expected turn out of young voters in Florida- John
Kerry wins the state, and probably with it the White House.

This tends to be true in most of the states that are still up in the air.
What this means is that voters between the ages of 18 and 29 are the future,
and what they do on Tuesday will decide the nation's futures for the first
time in decades.

No wonder John Kerry has suddenly begun to use the Howard Dean "you have the
power" refrain in his speeches in these last days of the campaign.

Please let me know what you think, and please let me know of any stories,
animations, or facts you think need to be reported on between now and the
election. E-mail me right now at Jtrippi@msnbc.com

Thanks, Joe

Posted by: Eric | Oct 31, 2004 11:10:13 PM

I think the law says you can't *call* a cell phone, but it probably doesn't say anything about text messaging a cell phone, which is what I presume they did in this survey.

Posted by: Jeff Winchell | Nov 1, 2004 5:01:48 AM

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