The Newsweek Poll

Debates Interpreting Polls Legacy blog posts The 2004 Race

Newsweek Magazine released a survey last night, “the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample” of all registered voters nationally since Thursday night’s debate. The results, if taken at face value, are highly encouraging for the Democrats, showing Kerry two points ahead of Bush (49% to 47%) in a three-way match-up that includes Ralph Nader (at 2%), though the story appropriately characterizes the result as a “statistical tie.” Without Nader included in the question, the survey puts Kerry ahead by three points (49% to 46%).

We have good reason to be cautious, however, as Newsweek did most of its interviews on Friday night and Saturday afternoon. According to the Newsweek release, it conducted the survey “after the debate ended” with interviewing done Thursday through Saturday. Since the debate ended at 10:30 p.m. Eastern time, I assume that Thursday night interviewing was limited to the West Coast and very light elsewhere.

Because so many adults are away from home on Friday nights and Saturdays, very survey organizations conduct polls on only Fridays and Saturdays. In my experience, weekend-only interviewing yields respondents that are more aware of current events and political figures even after demographic weighting.

As some may recall, Newsweek was similarly out front with a poll done immediately after the Republican convention (Thursday and Friday, September 2-3). They had Bush ahead among registered voters by a slightly wider margin (52% to 41%) than other surveys done during the following week.

Also, note that Kerry’s six point gain (from 43% to 49%) since the September 9-10 looks to be right on the edge of statistical signifance given the reported +/-4% sampling error. Perhaps that’s why the Newsweek poll story omits any reference to the September 9-10 survey and instead hypes the more dramatic and significant (though misleading) comparison to the eleven point Bush lead (52% to 41%) on Sept 2-3. The Newsweek release and Reuters story included the data from 9/9-10.

To be clear, I am urging caution about these results, not disbelief. We can have much more confidence when we see results less reliant on Friday-Saturday interviewing. I’m assuming many, many new polls will follow in the next 72 hours.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is the principal at MysteryPollster, LLC. With decades of experience in polling using traditional and innovative online methods, he is uniquely positioned to advise survey researchers, progressive organizations and candidates and the public at-large on how to adapt to polling’s ongoing reinvention. He was previously head of election polling at SurveyMonkey, senior polling editor for The Huffington Post, co-founder of Pollster.com and a long-time campaign consultant who conducted and analyzed political polls and focus groups for Democratic party candidates.