Pew on “Moral Values”

Exit Polls Legacy blog posts Measurement Issues The 2004 Race

The Pew Research Center released a new study yesterday, a follow-up interview with 1203 voters who were originally surveyed in October that sheds interesting new light on the “moral values” controversy.

Pew conducted an experiment with the question that asked, “What one issue mattered most to you in deciding how you voted for president?” For a random half sample, they provided the same list of fixed choices as the national exit poll: Moral values, Iraq, economy/jobs, terrorism, health care, education and taxes. They asked respondents on the other half sample to answer in their own words, and did not provide a list of choices.

The survey’s findings parallel exit poll results showing that moral values is a top-tier issue for voters. But its relative importance depends greatly on how the question is framed. The post-election survey finds that, when moral values is pitted against issues like Iraq and terrorism, a plurality (27%) cites moral values as most important to their vote. But when a separate group of voters was asked to name – in their own words – the most important factor in their vote, significantly fewer (14%) mentioned moral values.  Regardless of how the question is asked, the survey shows that moral values is the most frequently cited issue for Bush voters, but is seldom mentioned by Kerry voters.

In addition, those who cite moral values as a major factor offer varying interpretations of the concept. More than four-in-ten (44%) of those who chose moral values as the most important factor in their vote from the list of issues say the term relates to specific concerns over social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage. However, others did not cite specific policy issues, and instead pointed to factors like the candidates’ personal qualities or made general allusions to religion and values.

The consistency across methodologies is arguably more important the differences: Whether asked as an open-ended or closed-ended question (a) no single issue dominates and (b) Bush voters mention issues related to “moral values” most often, while Kerry voters rarely mention such issues.

If you care about this controversy, their report is worth reading in full.

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is the principal at MysteryPollster, LLC. With decades of experience in polling using traditional and innovative online methods, he is uniquely positioned to advise survey researchers, progressive organizations and candidates and the public at-large on how to adapt to polling’s ongoing reinvention. He was previously head of election polling at SurveyMonkey, senior polling editor for The Huffington Post, co-founder of Pollster.com and a long-time campaign consultant who conducted and analyzed political polls and focus groups for Democratic party candidates.