February 14, 2006
Bush Job Rating: No SOTU Bounce
Four organizations have now reported conventional national surveys since the State of the Union, and collectively they show little or no movement in the job rating of President George Bush. Once again, the annual address to Congress has produced no "bounce."
The table that follows shows the most recent results from the four pollsters, plus their comparable results from early December and early January. None of the surveys showed statistically significant differences in the Bush job rating, and the small changes the report in approval appear random in their direction (Fox and Pew were slightly higher, Gallup slightly lower and AP/ISPOS unchanged):
An "apples-to-apples" average of the polls done during the first nine days of February shows a one point increase since January. However, Gallup followed up with a second survey that shows a slight drop (from 42% to 39%) that appears too small to MP to be statistically significant. Nonetheless, if we average the two Gallup surveys and use that to calculate an overall February average, it would be 41% approve -- unchanged since December.
For those who would like to dig deeper into the data, here are links:
- Fox News/Opinion Dynamics: story, results
- Gallup/CNN/USAToday 2/9-12: CNN story, USAToday story & results
- Gallup 2/6-9: Gallup release
- Pew Research Center report, topline questionnaire, complete PDF
- AP/IPSOS: topline results
Related Entries - President Bush
The question is clear, and summarized in the USA Today version of Gallup.
""It suggests that he's pretty much down to his core supporters out there ... and everyone else has left," says Richard Stoll, a political scientist at Rice University.
How solid (or not) that core support is will determine his numbers going forward.
Posted by: DemFromCT | Feb 14, 2006 7:53:50 PM
Then how come Rasmussen has Bush at 49% approval for three straight days?
Something's amiss. Perhaps some could get into Scott Rasmussen's partisan percentages
used in his polling.
Posted by: mikelow | Feb 14, 2006 10:35:27 PM
President 'Just Fine' With Cheney Explanation
Posted by: lj | Feb 16, 2006 8:56:43 PM
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