February 22, 2006
Numbers Guy: Palestinian Exit Polls
Carl Bialik, the "Numbers Guy" for the Wall Street Journal Online," has a comprehensive review of the Palestinian exit poll snafu now online (that, as always, is free to all).
MP blogged about this issue briefly earlier in the month, but frankly, lacks a good working knowledge of the working of the election or the mechanics of the exit polls conducted there. Bialik, on the other hand, dug deep. Here is his bottom line:
The pollsters had experience and strong track records. So what went wrong? Two of the pollsters, who have been reviewing the results since the election, have different explanations. One suspects that Hamas strategically gamed the polling numbers to suppress Fatah worries. But another blames himself for failing to properly analyze the data, a mistake exacerbated by an unusual election system that magnified small differences between the two leading parties.
The complete piece has all the details. Read it all.
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