March 27, 2006
Here is a round-up of some quick links on an otherwise busy day:
- Prof. Franklin unpacks more analysis on why the Bush job rating seems to indicate week-to-week stability even in the midst of a long term decline. Franklin provides another impressive array of charts and data that underscore the comment Robert Chung made here last week: Given sampling error associated with a single poll of 1,000 adults (usually 3%), the odds are quite long of seeing a significant change across individual surveys conducted a week or two apart.
Of course, keep in mind that Franklin's conclusions make the most sense for a mostly stable attitude like a President's job approval rating. By the time a President becomes a President, most voters have formed an impression that tends to change slowly. Impressions of heretofore unknown political candidates can change much more rapidly, especially in the midst of a multi-million dollar advertising blitz. As a campaign pollster, I have seen very large (double digit) changes in candidate favorability and vote choice in those sorts of races within the span of a few weeks.
- For those following the Israeli elections, Franklin also has the most complete graphical summary of Israeli poll results I have seen anywhere. Franklin's tracking indicates that as Israelis go the polls, the wide lead held by the Kadima party has narrowed over the last month. Kadima's support has fallen roughly five percentage points, while support for the new right wing party Yisrael Beiteinu has seen its support increase by roughly the same number (although still running a few points behind the Labor and Likud parties).
- Finally, last week I neglected to link to the latest Diageo-Hotline poll (press release, results). This month's survey sampled only registered Republican voters and took an in-depth look at attitudes about the potential Republican candidates for President. Next month, they will do the same for Democrats. By "over-sampling" partisans, they allow for a sub-group analysis that gets us closer to the views of the much smaller population of likely primary voters and caucus participants who will eventually select each party's nominee.
This general approach is something MP wishes other pollsters would emulate, as it provides helpful insights into the coming 2008 campaign. For example, as noted by the Hotline's editors, the poll shows John McCain doing best among the few Republicans who disapprove of George Bush's performance as president (getting 37% to Rudy Giuliani's 21%). Yet among Republicans who strongly approve of Bush's performance, McCain gets only 17% to 24% for Giuliani. As Hotline editor Chuck Todd speculates, perhaps the most "adamant Bush supporters are picking Giuliani in polls because they think he's the candidate most supportive of Bush right now" (hat tip: Sullivan).
At some point in the not too distant future, MP hopes to explore the big challenge involved in selecting "likely voters" for the presidential primaries. For now, Hotline's polling editor Aoife McCarthy provides helpful details on the questions used to define "registered Republicans."
PS: While MP greatly appreciates the focus of the Diageo-Hotline poll on the 2008 primary battles, he remains a skeptic about the results of the question (Q19) purporting to show that the most popular blog among Republican voters is Anderson Cooper's 360 Blog. It leads the next most mentioned blogs -- those perennial conservative favorites Daily Kos and AmericaBlog - by a 7 to 1 margin. McCarthy labors to offer possible explanations for these improbable results, but from my perspective the blog question still looks to be suffering from some sort of programming glitch.
while no democratic primary polls have come out since feingold's censure calls - how do you think it will affect his standing in the intitial post-censure polls?
Posted by: anon | Mar 28, 2006 10:12:43 PM
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