An “Immigration-Enforcement” Third Party?

Immigration Legacy blog posts Polls in the News The 2006 Race

Yesterday, our friend Mickey Kaus highlighted a question from a recent Rasmussen automated survey worth examining a bit more closely.  The question asks voters to choose between "generic" Republican and Democratic candidates (with no stated immigration position) and a third party candidate that takes a hard-line anti-immigration position.  The third-party candidate gets 30% of the vote, leading both Rasmussen and Kaus to speculate about the potential power of immigration to reshape our politics.  Let me suggest an alternative:  It may simply confirm the desire for a third party (at least in theory) by a large number of Americans regardless of the issues involved.   

Courtesy of Scott Rasmussen, here is the full text of the two questions at issue (and remember that Rasmussen currently weights his survey a few points more Republican than other national samples of adults):

If the 2008 Presidential Election were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?
       
44% Democrat
       
32% Republican
       
7% Other
       
17% Not sure

Suppose a third party candidate ran in 2008 and promised to build a barrier along the Mexican border and make enforcement of immigration law his top priority.  Would you vote for the Republican, the Democrat, or the third party candidate?

31% Democrat

21% Republican

30% Third party/other

18% Not sure

On his web site, Scott Rasmussen concludes:

This result probably reflects unhappiness with both parties on the immigration issue rather than a true opportunity for a third party. Historically, issues that drive third party candidates get co-opted by one of the major parties as they demonstrate popular appeal

Blogging at RealClearPolitics, he adds that the result "be taken as an indication of the [immigration] issue’s power rather than a literal projection of election outcomes." 

Fair enough.  And while there is good evidence elsewhere (especially here) that the immigration issue produces more division within the two political parties than between them, let me suggest another reason to be careful about reading too much into this particular question.  It may tell us as much about the strong general desire for a third party candidate as it does about the power of the immigration issue specifically.   

Consider this result from the just released NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which shows 45% favor the idea of a "new independent political party" and 29% oppose:

Tell me whether you would strongly favor, mildly favor, feel neutral about, mildly oppose, or strongly oppose this change:  Build a new independent political party to run a credible candidate for president.

31% strongly favor

14% mildly favor

24% feel neutral

12% mildly oppose

17% strongly oppose 

2% not sure

Or consider these questions asked by Gallup survey in 2003:

In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job of representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? (10/10-12/2003, n=1,004)

56% Do an adequate job

40% Third party needed

4% Don’t know/refused

Have you ever voted for an independent or a third party candidate for president, that is, a candidate for president who was not either a Republican or a Democrat? (9/19-21/2003, n=1,003)

28% Yes, have

71% No, have not

1% Don’t know/refused

It is also worth expanding on one of Kaus’ caveats:  "Candidates with appealing specifics often beat undefined, generic party choices."  That is true, in that questions that inform respondents about the specific issue positions of specific named candidates typically get more of a response (e.g. fewer undecideds) than questions posing only "generic" choices.  However, Rasmussen’s question is a bit unusual in that it includes both types of choices on the same question.  To be honest, I have not seen that done before and am not quite sure what to make of the result. 

Again, I do not want to minimize the potential for the immigration issue to divide the bases of both parties, particularly the conservative Republican base.   And Rasmussen reports that his hypothetical tough-on-immigration third party candidate divides self-identified conservatives, getting 35% to the generic Republican’s 36%, while liberals still overwhelming prefer the Democrat (65%) to the third party candidate (19%).**  That result is worth pondering, even though, as Rasmussen appropriately warns, we should not consider it "a literal projection of election outcomes."

**Although note that self-identified conservatives outnumber liberals in Rasmussen’s sample by roughly two to one (34% to 17%).

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is the principal at MysteryPollster, LLC. With decades of experience in polling using traditional and innovative online methods, he is uniquely positioned to advise survey researchers, progressive organizations and candidates and the public at-large on how to adapt to polling’s ongoing reinvention. He was previously head of election polling at SurveyMonkey, senior polling editor for The Huffington Post, co-founder of Pollster.com and a long-time campaign consultant who conducted and analyzed political polls and focus groups for Democratic party candidates.