Et tu, Gallup?

Two new surveys suggest the slow but steady decline in the Bush job rating continues.  The 34% job approval rating on the USA Today/Gallup poll (see USAToday story, results and Gallup analysis) and 33% on the CBS survey (story, results) both represent “new lows” for each organization.  Although the difference from the previous low on both polls is small (and thus, the usual caution about “new lows” applies), the downward trend across all public polls remains for the most part steady and consistent.  The results of both surveys appear to fall below the trend line that Professor Franklin updated a week ago.

MP recommends reading the analysis by Gallup’s Frank Newport and Joe Carroll today (before it disappears behind Gallup’s subscription wall tomorrow). They roll together all of Gallup’s data to confirm the slow steady decline in Bush’s rating in 2006.  This analysis represents a subtle change.  A month ago, Newport looked at results from three successive polls conducted in February and early March and concluded that Bush’s job performance had “not undergone a dramatic free fall” but rather appeared to be entering “another period of stability” following a “small shift.”  Franklin, who plotted and analyzed the data from all the public polls, disagreed. 

In this latest analysis, Newport and Carroll roll together their data and look at monthly and quarterly averages and conclude that “Bush is losing about one point per month because his monthly job approval averages have fallen 16 points in 16 months since January 2005.”  In the first four months of 2006, they show the job rating falling from steadily:  43% in January, 40% in February, 37% in March and 36% in April. 

Source: Gallup Organization