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May 02, 2006

Et tu, Gallup?

Two new surveys suggest the slow but steady decline in the Bush job rating continues.  The 34% job approval rating on the USA Today/Gallup poll (see USAToday story, results and Gallup analysis) and 33% on the CBS survey (story, results) both represent "new lows" for each organization.  Although the difference from the previous low on both polls is small (and thus, the usual caution about "new lows" applies), the downward trend across all public polls remains for the most part steady and consistent.  The results of both surveys appear to fall below the trend line that Professor Franklin updated a week ago.

MP recommends reading the analysis by Gallup's Frank Newport and Joe Carroll today (before it disappears behind Gallup's subscription wall tomorrow). They roll together all of Gallup's data to confirm the slow steady decline in Bush's rating in 2006.  This analysis represents a subtle change.  A month ago, Newport looked at results from three successive polls conducted in February and early March and concluded that Bush's job performance had "not undergone a dramatic free fall" but rather appeared to be entering "another period of stability" following a "small shift."  Franklin, who plotted and analyzed the data from all the public polls, disagreed

In this latest analysis, Newport and Carroll roll together their data and look at monthly and quarterly averages and conclude that "Bush is losing about one point per month because his monthly job approval averages have fallen 16 points in 16 months since January 2005."  In the first four months of 2006, they show the job rating falling from steadily:  43% in January, 40% in February, 37% in March and 36% in April. 

0502_gallup_trend


Source: Gallup Organization

Related Entries - President Bush

Posted by Mark Blumenthal on May 2, 2006 at 09:11 AM in President Bush | Permalink

Comments

The analysis states that "the erosion in support from his base has halted, at least temporarily", with 81% of Republicans supporting Bush.

However, if the number of self-identified Republicans is really dropping, then the support in Bush's base is also dropping, assuming that most of those switching from Republican do not support Bush.

If the 3% of Republicans who switched from Republican between October, 2004, and March, 2006 (according to Rasmussen) were added back in Gallup's poll, and none of them support Bush, then Bush's Republican support would be about 74%. This is higher than the independent support, but much lower than the Republican support.

Of course, combining Rasmussen and Gallup results is dangerous, but I did it anyway, since I couldn't find the results in one place.

Posted by: nereocystis | May 2, 2006 2:24:51 PM

nereocystis makes an interesting point.

Posted by: Petey | May 2, 2006 3:06:33 PM

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