Update: Military Social Conservatives

Legacy blog posts Polls in the News

Let’s hear it for MP’s readers.  Both in comments and via email, I have heard from political scientists pointing to much better sources of data on military attitudes than what I cited yesterday.  These confirm that, contrary to Peggy Noonan’s speculation, U.S. military officers are more Republican and conservative than the general population and their conservatism extends to social and domestic policy.   The best known studies largely pertain to elite military officers.  A more recent effort indicates that the larger pool of regular enlisted personnel may not be quite so Republican or conservative. 

Two MP readers, political scientists Richard Eichenberg and Paul Gronke, both left comments on yesterday’s post pointing to articles based on a series of surveys of "military elite" conducted by sampling individuals found in directories such as Who’s Who or senior Pentagon officials whose names appeared in the Congressional Directory.  These were conducted by the Foreign Policy Leadership Project (FPLP) under the direction of Professors Ole R. Holsti of Duke and James Rosenau of Princeton.  These were reviewed in an article by Holsti in the journal International Security ("A Widening Gap between the U.S. Military and Civilian Society?: Some Evidence, 1976-96," available online to those with access to the JSTOR archive). 

Another survey conducted in 1998 and 1999 by the Triangle Institute for Security Studies (TISS) replicated the FPLP sample design.  According to Gronke, a report on that data appears in Feaver and Kohn, "Soldiers and Civilians" and also in Gronke’s early version of his own paper from that volume. Here is the bottom line, according to Gronke’s comment:

Put simply: the military elite (this was NOT a rank and file survey) are more socially conservative, more religious, and more Republican than the public at large, and even more so than civilian elites.

I’m not sure [which] career military folks Peggy Noonan has talked to about social issues–likely those who have advanced sufficiently to be sufficiently politically astute as to not advertise their views–but her claim is not supported by any of the research that I am familiar with.

Alert reader JS also passes along a more recent survey conducted by an assistant professor at West Point named Jason Dempsey.   Unlike FPLP and TISS, Dempsey surveyed a representative sample of the entire U.S. Army, both officers and enlisted soldiers. 

Dempsy has co-authored a paper on the study with Columbia Professor Robert Y. Shapiro that is not yet published but was presented at a March conference.  That paper indicates that enlisted personnel are significantly less conservative and Republican than their officers.  As the authors consider the paper "pre-publication," I am honoring their request not to quote from it, but I contacted Dempsy via email and he has promised to pass along his comments.  I will update this post with those comments when I receive them. 

Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is the principal at MysteryPollster, LLC. With decades of experience in polling using traditional and innovative online methods, he is uniquely positioned to advise survey researchers, progressive organizations and candidates and the public at-large on how to adapt to polling’s ongoing reinvention. He was previously head of election polling at SurveyMonkey, senior polling editor for The Huffington Post, co-founder of Pollster.com and a long-time campaign consultant who conducted and analyzed political polls and focus groups for Democratic party candidates.