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July 11, 2006

Gallup: Bush Job Approval at 40%

Gallup reported on their latest national survey today, which shows the Bush job approval rating bumping up to 40% (the Gallup release is free to all for today, to subscribers only after that). 

Charles Franklin plots the Gallup numbers, which closely parallel his regression line, a trend estimate based on all available public polls.  Both now show the Bush job rating at just over 40%.   Thus, looking at all available polls, rather than just one at a time, we can clearly see that the Bush rating has increased significantly since hitting bottom in mid May, but still a good ten points lower than Bush's ratings in early 2005. 

Franklin_currentbushapproval20060709


The Gallup report indicates that the improvement has come mostly from Republicans and independents:

The president's job approval ratings currently stand at 78% among Republicans, 36% among independents, and lower still among Democrats, at 10%. In early May, Bush's average support was 68% among Republicans, 26% among independents, and 4% among Democrats.

I did not have time to create a blog-worthy table, but checking the online releases by the Fox poll indicates a similar pattern on their surveys:  They show the Bush approval rating among Republicans rising from 66% in late April and early May to 79% on their most recent survey in late June.   The same Fox surveys show no significant change among Democrats or independents. 

PS:  Alert reader JB notes a minor typo in the Gallup release.  The June 9-11 data adds to 96%.  It appears that a typo turned the 6% for no opinion (as indicated in a release by USA Today) into 2% on the most recent release.  When it comes to proofreading, you just can't beat MP readers.

Related Entries - President Bush

Posted by Mark Blumenthal on July 11, 2006 at 04:42 PM in President Bush | Permalink

Comments

To speak in stock-charting terminology, this is a dead-cat bounce. Bush has major resistance at the 42-43% range on Franklin's chart. Unless he clears that level, the downward trend remains intact. If this were a stock, I'd be entering short positions right now.

Posted by: Aaron | Jul 12, 2006 11:21:35 AM

Why did you delete my post?

Posted by: Aaron | Jul 13, 2006 8:07:04 AM

Aaron - My apologies. I deleted no posts, but Typepad, the host service for this blog, had an outage yesterday. I am assuming that their outage somehow affected your comment. Information on the outage is available here:

http://www.sixapart.com/typepad/news/2006/07/typepad_status_1.html

Since I received a copy of your comment via email, I can re-post.

Aaron wrote:

"To speak in stock-charting terminology, this is a dead-cat bounce. Bush has major resistance at the 42-43% range on Franklin's chart. Unless he clears that level, the downward trend remains intact. If this were a stock, I'd be entering short positions right now."

Posted by: Mark Blumenthal | Jul 13, 2006 8:37:23 AM

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