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August 08, 2006

CT: No Exit Polls Today (Make that One Exit Poll - See Updates)

I noticed several hundred (at least) incoming Google searches on various combination of "Connecticut exit poll Lieberman Lamont,"  so let me pass on the official word regarding today's Connecticut primary from ABC's The Note: "There are no pooled network exit polls"  [emphasis added].**

The Note also passes along this helpful information for those who plan to follow the returns: 

The Connecticut Legislation and Elections website (LINK and LINK) will be updated continually, as soon as information comes in. The state is using a brand new system, which may or may not work. Should the system not work, officials are prepared with a spreadsheet and the site should be updated at roughly fifteen minute intervals with results.

Lever machines will dominate in today's primary, with a smattering of optical scan voting places.  And here is a chart, courtesy of the excellent folks at the AP, detailing the timing of the reporting of results on election night in 2004 to use as a guide for tonight.

First Reports from Counties:             8:35 pm ET

20% of Precincts Statewide by:          10:00 pm ET

90% of Precincts Statewide by:          1:01 am ET (Wednesday)

100% of Precincts Statewide by:         9:44 am ET (Wednesday)

Clarification:  No "pooled" exit polls means no exit polls sponsored by the major networks, i.e. the National Election Pool (NEP) consortium.    If anyone else conducts true exit polling in Connecticut, it's news to me. 

Some organizations (such as the Associated Press and Zogby) have conducted telephone surveys on Election Day in recent elections some places, and Zogby has taken to labeling his approach an "exit poll."  I have no idea if any such efforts are underway in Connecticut today.  I would have little faith in the ability of such a poll to project the outcome on Election Day, especially the Zogby model which apparently took three days to complete.

UPDATE (8:32 p.m.):  Very alert reader Melanie reports in a comment below that she "filled out an exit poll for CBS news."   Via email she adds:

It was an electronic device - the logo at the top said CBS News, with no reference to our local CBS affiliate in Hartford.  (It surprised me, which is why I remember it.)  There were a lot of questions - it took from 5-10 minutes.

She adds that most of the questions concerned the Lieberman-Lamont race, but for some reason "didn't ask about the race for the gubernatorial nomination."   Further:

I just heard a reporter note on NECN (New England Cable News- not affiliated with any of the majors, I don't think)  that NY Times/CBS are doing exit polling - I don't know if it's true, but that was what he said.

Obviously, the polls in Connecticut have now closed, so any results from this exit poll are likely to come directly from CBS News or the New York Times. ..

UPDATE II (8:48):  Kathy Frankovic at CBS News confirms that they did in fact conduct an exit poll in Connecticut today in partnership with the Times, but will not be using it to project a winner in the Senate race.  Stay tuned...

UPDATE III (9:30 a.m. 8/9):  CBS has posted a brief report on their exit poll online.

Related Entries - Exit Polls, The 2006 Race

Posted by Mark Blumenthal on August 8, 2006 at 03:42 PM in Exit Polls, The 2006 Race | Permalink

Comments

ok, no POOLED exit polls, but does that mean that no one is doing non-pooled exit polls?

Posted by: zc | Aug 8, 2006 4:03:31 PM

ZC:

No "pooled" exit polls means no exit polls sponsored by the major networks, i.e. the National Election Pool (NEP) consortium. See the update above

Posted by: Mark Blumenthal | Aug 8, 2006 4:20:19 PM

Why do we need "major networks" to conduct an exit poll? They haven't done a good job of keeping their finger on the national pulse up to now. Local bloggers, get out there and do it!--Neil Elliott

Posted by: Neil Elliott | Aug 8, 2006 6:12:26 PM

I filled out an exit poll for CBS news - so at least one organization is conducting some polls.

Posted by: Melanie | Aug 8, 2006 6:21:54 PM

I read somewhere that the absentee ballots from military and, I guess, other overseas CT voters may be counted up through August 25. Is that not so, and might there be substantial numbers of these?

Posted by: SSoP,Leo on the 15th! | Aug 8, 2006 6:52:42 PM

The MSM didn't think this was important enough for exit polls??!! Now doesn't that just about sum up the state of journalism in America today...

Posted by: jukesgrrl | Aug 8, 2006 7:35:50 PM

If they had exit polls it would be harder for neo-cons to fix the election for Joe!

Posted by: Lio | Aug 8, 2006 7:43:35 PM

New York Times at 8:37:
Joseph I. Lieberman 7,199 43.4%
Ned Lamont 9,399 56.6%

6% reporting

Posted by: | Aug 8, 2006 8:51:17 PM

New York Times at 9:00:
Joseph I. Lieberman 23,414 (43.7%)
Ned Lamont: 30,219 (56.3%)
Yahoo!

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 9:11:18 PM

New York Times at 9:00:
Joseph I. Lieberman 23,414 (43.7%)
Ned Lamont: 30,219 (56.3%)
Yahoo!

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 9:11:21 PM

Notice the trend (I'm a little worried that the margin is changing...):

New York Times at 9:13:
Joseph I. Lieberman 53,159 (46.4%)
Ned Lamont: 61,449 (53.6%)
38% reporting

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 9:27:04 PM

I think it's expected that as the cities report in, Ned's lead will shrink. It's all about who's reporting in, baby!

Posted by: | Aug 8, 2006 9:30:49 PM

The margin is tightening up!

Joseph I. Lieberman 64,700 (47.9%)
Ned Lamont 70,444 (52.1%)
50% of Precincts Reporting

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 9:36:08 PM

Yikes!
09:44PM

484 of 748 Precincts Reporting (64.71%)

Lamont, Ned Dem 89,814 (51.60%)
Lieberman, Joe (i) Dem 84,231 (48.40%)

From http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2006/by_state/CT_Page_0808.html?SITE=CTHARELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 9:49:25 PM

The margin appears to stablizing at 3.2 (I hope)
9:49 pm: 537 of 748 Precincts Reporting - 71.79%

Lamont, Ned Dem 100,425 (51.61%)
Lieberman, Joe (i) Dem 94,148 (48.39%)

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 9:57:01 PM

Looks a bit better. 3.52 margin

10:00 pm: 575 of 748 Precincts Reporting - 76.87%
Name Party Votes Pct
Lamont, Ned Dem 109,239 51.76
Lieberman, Joe (i) Dem 101,818 48.24

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 10:06:30 PM

3.64 margin!
10:35 pm: 648 of 748 Precincts Reporting - 86.63%

Lamont, Ned Dem 124,528 (51.82%)
Lieberman, Joe (i) Dem 115,803 (48.18%)

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 10:40:25 PM

Margin back down to 3.2, but with almost 90% reporting, I am feeling more secure!

10:45: 667 of 748 Precincts Reporting - 89.17%

Lamont, Ned Dem 127,786 (51.60%)
Lieberman, Joe (i) Dem 119,867 (48.40%)

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 10:49:23 PM

Thanks for the updates Prantha. For what it's worth, the last update I've seen has Lamont ahead by 3.45% with 94% of the precints in. My spreadsheet says Lieberman would need nearly 80% of what's left to prevail. That's not going to happen.

Posted by: Mark Blumenthal | Aug 8, 2006 11:03:45 PM


I would say that Lamont has won:
3.84 margin, with 93% reporting:
11:00 p.m. 713 of 748 Precincts Reporting - 95.32%

Lamont, Ned Dem 138,836 (51.92%)
Lieberman, Joe (i) Dem 128,566 (48.08%)

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 11:04:29 PM

Yahoo!
LIEBERMAN CONCEDES!

Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman conceded the Democratic primary to challenger Ned Lamont shortly after 11 this evening, but vowed to continue his campaign as a petitioning candidate. .

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 11:08:45 PM

11:10 pm: 724 of 748 Precincts Reporting - 96.79%

Lamont, Ned Dem 141,623 (51.85%)
Lieberman, Joe (i) Dem 131,491 (48.15%)

Lamont defeats Lieberman in Connecticut Race: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/08/nyregion/08cnd-campaign.html?hp&ex=1155096000&en=6e7fe1fab055b2ed&ei=5094&partner=homepage

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 11:17:32 PM

Now, Lamont is checked as the wiinner with a 3.62 margin!
It's over, and I hope the party takes this as a statement!

11:15: 733 of 748 Precincts Reporting - 97.99%

Lamont, Ned Dem 143,363 (51.81%)
Lieberman, Joe (i) Dem 133,323 (48.19%)

Posted by: Prantha Trivedi | Aug 8, 2006 11:22:00 PM

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