Mystery Pollster

Demystifying the Science and Art of Political Polling - By Mark Blumenthal



Archives

August 2006
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May 2006
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March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004

Categories

Debates
Divergent Polls
Exit Polls
FAQ
Focus Groups
General
Hillary Clinton
Immigration
Impeachment
Incumbent Rule
Initiative and Referenda
Innovations in Polling
Instant Reaction Polls
Internet Polls
Interpreting Polls
Iraq
IVR Polls
JunkPolls
Likely Voters
Measurement Issues
Microtargeting
Miscellanous
Mobile phones
MP Housekeeping
Polling & the Blogosphere
Polls in the News
Pollsters
President Bush
Push "Polls"
Response Rates
Roboscam
Sampling Error
Sampling Issues
The 2004 Race
The 2005 Race
The 2006 Race
The 2008 Race
Weighting by Party





FAQ

  • Why are polls showing contradictory results?
  • What does the margin of error mean?
  • How do pollsters select "likely voters?"
  • Should pollsters weight by party identification?
  • Do undecided voters break for the challenger?
  • Are polls missing people with mobile phones?
  • EXIT POLL FAQ
  • Why "Mystery Pollster?
  • Other Questions

  • "The knowledgeable Mystery Pollster, who used to send kf highly informative emails, now has a blog. Bad for kf, good for 2004 campaign coverage" - Mickey Kaus
  • "A polling-related blog by one of Kaus's secret sources. It's full of interesting information on, yes, polling" - Instapundit
  • "a great new blog!" - Andrew Sullivan
  • "Superpollster" - ABC’s The Note
  • "The hottest new polling site on the web is mysterypollster… takes a clear tutorial approach to some of this year's more esoteric subjects" - Lou Dolinar, Newsday
  • "Hot Site:" A "wonky but absorbing blog" - USA Today
  • This "young blog has quickly become an invaluable psephological resource" - John Tabin, American Spectator
  • "Professional pollster Mark Blumenthal started Mystery Pollster to provide better interpretation of polling results and methodology... offers much needed help to Political Wire readers" - Political Wire
  • "Political junkies will enjoy this new blog" - The Business Word

Recent Posts

  • The NYT Reader's Guide to Polls
  • Vacation
  • Crosstabs.org
  • So What *Is* A Push Poll?
  • Another Online Poll on Online Activity
  • CT: Party ID from Quinnipiac Poll
  • More on the CT Exit Poll Experiment
  • Incumbent Rule Redux
  • New Polls from Fox, AP
  • Connecticut Epilogue

Categories

  • Debates
  • Divergent Polls
  • Exit Polls
  • FAQ
  • Focus Groups
  • General
  • Hillary Clinton
  • Immigration
  • Impeachment
  • Incumbent Rule
  • Initiative and Referenda
  • Innovations in Polling
  • Instant Reaction Polls
  • Internet Polls
  • Interpreting Polls
  • Iraq
  • IVR Polls
  • JunkPolls
  • Likely Voters
  • Measurement Issues
  • Microtargeting
  • Miscellanous
  • Mobile phones
  • MP Housekeeping
  • Polling & the Blogosphere
  • Polls in the News
  • Pollsters
  • President Bush
  • Push "Polls"
  • Response Rates
  • Roboscam
  • Sampling Error
  • Sampling Issues
  • The 2004 Race
  • The 2005 Race
  • The 2006 Race
  • The 2008 Race
  • Weighting by Party

Public Pollsters

  • ABC News
  • AP-IPSOS
  • CBS News
  • Democracy Corps (D)
  • Diageo/Hotline Poll
  • Economist/YouGov
  • Gallup
  • GWU/Battleground
  • Harris Interactive
  • IBD/TIPP
  • ICR - International Communications Research
  • LA Times
  • Marist Poll
  • NBC/Wall Street Journal
  • New York Times
  • Pew Research Center
  • Princeton Survey Research Associates International
  • Public Agenda
  • Quinnipiac University Poll
  • Rasmussen Reports
  • Survey USA
  • Time/SRBI
  • Washington Post
  • Zogby International

Polling Summary Sites

  • Political Arithmetik
  • Dalythoughts
  • FederalReview.com
  • ElectionProjection.com
  • Electoral-Vote.com
  • R. Chung's Graphics
  • Prof. Wang's State Poll Meta-Analysis
  • Prof. Pollkatz Pool of Polls
  • Rubicon Electoral College Update
  • Wall Street Journal Poll Graphic
  • Slate: Election Scorecard
  • The Polling Report

Academic Surveys

  • General Social Survey (GSS)
  • The Roper Center (Survey Archives)
  • National Annenberg Election Study (NAES)
  • Univ. of Wisc./BYU 2004 Election Study
  • Joint Program in Survey Methodology (JPSM)
  • Institute for Social Research (ISR)
  • National Election Studies

Survey Research Orgs

  • The Council for Marketing and Opinion Research (CMOR)
  • The World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR)
  • Council of American Survey Research Organizations (CASRO)
  • The National Council on Public Polls (NCPP)
  • American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR)

Political Commentary

  • Kausfiles
  • Andrew Sullivan
  • Instapundit
  • Daily Kos
  • MyDD
  • Dalythoughts
  • LeftCoaster
  • DonkeyRising
  • Daniel Drezner
  • Policy by Blog (Perlmutter)

Archives

  • August 2006
  • July 2006
  • June 2006
  • May 2006
  • April 2006
  • March 2006
  • February 2006
  • January 2006
  • December 2005
  • November 2005
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  • Mark Blumenthal
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