Connecticut Epilogue

August 9, 2006

The nearly final 3.6% margin by which Ned Lamont defeated Joe Lieberman in yesterday's Connecticut Senate Primary (with 98% of precincts counted, Lamont leads 51.8% to 48.2%) was certainly closer than the margins on the final public polls. The two...[More...]


A Lesson Learned the Hard Way

August 8, 2006

For those waiting on the results of the today's Connecticut primary, here is a cautionary tale about the limits of polling in a primary election. Four years ago this week, I learned a lesson the hard way about what pre-election...[More...]


Quinnipiac's Latest Connecticut Poll

July 21, 2006

It’s been a busy week, with far more interesting topics than I have had time to blog. Let's start with the Quinnipiac Poll released yesterday that puts Ned Lamont ahead of Sen. Joe Lieberman among likely Democratic primary voters in...[More...]


Link Roundup

March 27, 2006

Here is a round-up of some quick links on an otherwise busy day: Prof. Franklin unpacks more analysis on why the Bush job rating seems to indicate week-to-week stability even in the midst of a long term decline. Franklin provides...[More...]


New Polls, Old Arguments

March 14, 2006

New polls are out this morning from both CBS (story, results) and CNN/USAToday/Gallup (CNN story & results, USAToday story) that show continuing low marks for President Bush and eroding views of the Iraq War. These two new releases provide a...[More...]


Lessons: Likely Voter Models & Bias

November 12, 2004

On Wednesday morning after the election, still a bit groggy, I cobbled together a quick table of the final surveys released by the major national polling organizations. I calculated an overall average (showing a Bush margin of 1.7%), compared that...[More...]


Allocating Undecideds

November 2, 2004

I started to do something this evening I haven't had a chance to do in several days, which is to simply browse other blogs and ponder where things stand. Naturally, I found myself quickly falling asleep. The curse of new...[More...]


Ohio: Back to the Future

November 1, 2004

There is one poll I have been dying to write about since I started this blog. It has a surprisingly strong track record and, as luck would have it, happens to survey only voters in Ohio, one of the most...[More...]


Likely Voters VIII: Users Guide to Everybody Else

November 1, 2004

And finally: The final post in my "epic" series on likely voter models. The link to the jump page will take you to descriptions of the likely voter selection or modeling procedures used by 22 major polling organizations: All of...[More...]


Likely Voters VII: CBS/NYT

October 29, 2004

Virtually all of the national surveys use some form of cut-off procedure to define likely voters. Respondents are either classified as likely or unlikely voters. There is one notable exception: The CBS/New York Times poll, whose likely voter model involves...[More...]