New Polls from Fox, AP
August 11, 2006
Apologies for slow posting since Wednesday - it's been a busy week. Taking a step back from the Connecticut primary, two new national polls were released this week, and both show slightly lower job ratings for George Bush than most...[More...]
Bush Job Approval Update
July 28, 2006
This week brought a slew of new national surveys, but the trend in the Bush approval rating appears to be essentially flat since mid-June. The new surveys are from Gallup/USA Today (story, results, Gallup reports), NBC News/Wall Street Journal (story,...[More...]
Gallup: Bush Job Approval at 40%
July 11, 2006
Gallup reported on their latest national survey today, which shows the Bush job approval rating bumping up to 40% (the Gallup release is free to all for today, to subscribers only after that). Charles Franklin plots the Gallup numbers, which...[More...]
Updates
June 15, 2006
My apologies for the slow rate of posting this week. I had a number of non-blog deadlines all fall within about week's time and they have taken their toll. Among other things, I have not been able to finish my...[More...]
The Latest from CBS & USAToday/Gallup
June 13, 2006
Both USAToday/Gallup and CBS News are out with new polls this week that provide slightly conflicting views of the impact of the death last week of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi on the fortunes of President Bush. CBS News (article, results) shows...[More...]
Gallup: A "Modest Improvement?"
June 6, 2006
I am at work on the second part of the series looking at RFK, Jr. on exit polls, but will likely be bogged down by the “day job” for the afternoon. Those who need a polling fix might want to...[More...]
MP on NSA Polls on CBS Public Eye
May 26, 2006
Today I accepted an invitation to contribute to the "Outside Voices" feature on the CBS News blog "Public Eye." My post -- about lessons learned from the conflicting NSA telephone records polls -- is now up. Here's my bottom line:...[More...]
That Immigration Speech Instant Reaction Poll
May 18, 2006
dHere is a less than instant reaction to an instant-reaction survey fielded Monday night following the immigration address by President George Bush. CNN conducted the survey (story, results) among Americans who reported viewing the immigration speech by President George Bush....[More...]
Post/ABC on NSA Records - Part II
May 17, 2006
As expected, Washington Post and ABC News continued conducting interviews over the weekend and released complete results Tuesday afternoon. The release last Friday morning was based on the first 505 interviews -- the complete sample consisted of 1,103 adults. The...[More...]
Another Day, A Very Different Result
May 13, 2006
Well, another day, another -- very different -- set of poll results on the NSA phone records surveillance issue. On a new survey out today from Newsweek (story, results) 53% of Americans said the "program goes too far in invading...[More...]
ABC/WaPo on NSA Phone Records
May 12, 2006
Did yesterday's USAToday story on the collection of domestic telephone records by the NSA do President George Bush a backhanded favor? An overnight survey released earlier this morning by ABC News and the Washington Post suggests that it may be...[More...]
The Latest from CBS/NYT
May 10, 2006
Another day, another very high profile poll release. Today, it's the latest from the CBS/New York Times (see NYTimes article, results; CBS article, results, Medicare results). A few quick thoughts at the end of another busy day: The true poll...[More...]
Good News, Bad News & The Blogosphere
May 9, 2006
The last few days have been busy in terms of new national polls released, yet the commentary on those polls in the blogosphere strikes me as typical. Partisans on both sides (though mostly on the liberal side this time) seized...[More...]
Job Approval at Midterm
May 5, 2006
Earlier in the week, MP posted links to the latest surveys by USAToday/Gallup and CBS News and anticipated an updated trend chart that our friend Charles Franklin delivered as expected later that day. Unfortunately, a challenging week of travel and...[More...]
Et tu, Gallup?
May 2, 2006
Two new surveys suggest the slow but steady decline in the Bush job rating continues. The 34% job approval rating on the USA Today/Gallup poll (see USAToday story, results and Gallup analysis) and 33% on the CBS survey (story, results)...[More...]
Rasmussen Adopts Dynamic Party Weighting
May 1, 2006
As promised here on MP, pollster Scott Rasmussen yesterday announced a new party weighting procedure for his automated tracking survey: Beginning today (Sunday), Rasmussen Reports Job Approval updates are based upon data using a slight modification to our targeting and...[More...]
CNN & ORC: The Real "Breaking News?"
April 24, 2006
Thanks to the loyal reader who alerted MP to this just released poll (story, full results) by CNN which puts the Bush job approval rating at yet another new low of only 32%. But wait, despite yet another "new low"...[More...]
Monday Morning Link Roundup
April 17, 2006
It's Monday morning, and I'm still reeling from a week of trying to balance blogging, Passover travel and the ever present day job. But here is a quick roundup of things worth reading this morning from the world of political...[More...]
Bush Approval Update
April 7, 2006
My apologies for the sparse posting since Wednesday. It's been a busy week, and I've been working on a few items that decided to delay for various reasons. For today, however, make sure to check out Professor Franklin's latest update...[More...]
Newport's Answer to Kurtz
March 30, 2006
A belated link: Two weeks ago, the Washington Post's Howard Kurtz asked (and Mickey Kaus amplified) a question in his blog about "only compar[e] figures to their own past surveys, when they're fully aware of the others?" I posted some...[More...]
Link Roundup
March 27, 2006
Here is a round-up of some quick links on an otherwise busy day: Prof. Franklin unpacks more analysis on why the Bush job rating seems to indicate week-to-week stability even in the midst of a long term decline. Franklin provides...[More...]
New Low or Steady? Franklin's Answer
March 24, 2006
Last week, in looking at the graph of the Bush approval rating data as plotted by our friend Prof. Charles "Political Arithmetik" Franklin, I asked what seemed like a straightforward question: Did the recent changes represent an abrupt downward shift...[More...]
Gallup: "Bush Approval Steady at 37%"
March 20, 2006
Helping to underscore the question I asked at the end of Friday's post, Gallup has released another national survey this morning that shows no change in the Bush job rating over the last week: The March 13-16 Gallup Poll pegs...[More...]
"New Low" Update
March 17, 2006
Charles Franklin has updated his job approval graphic to include the new surveys from the Pew Research Center and NBC/Wall Street Journal. It is well worth reading in full, but here's the money quote: The effect of these and other...[More...]
Another "New Low?"
March 15, 2006
In his Washington Post "Media Notes" blog, Howard Kurtz raises an important question about the coverage of the polls showing "new lows" for George Bush (hat tip: Kaus). Kurtz and Kaus are right to wonder if the "new low" headlines...[More...]
Polls on Censure?
March 13, 2006
The proposal by Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) to censure President Bush over the domestic eavesdropping program crossed an important threshold this morning. It was mentioned in all the major "mainstream" newspapers and at least two cable news networks (CNN and...[More...]
Quick Links
March 6, 2006
A busy Monday brings a number of polling related items worth a quick link: This morning, the Washington Post released results from its latest poll taken in collaboration with ABC News. The latest numbers involve attitudes on the potential for...[More...]
The latest from CNN/USAToday/Gallup
March 3, 2006
The latest CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll is out this morning, and it generally confirms the results of the surveys released earlier in the week from CBS News, Cook-RT Strategies and the Rasumussen automated poll. Gallup has two releases up (free and available...[More...]
Ports: CBS News & Cook/RT
February 28, 2006
Two new polls confirm the Rasmussen result discussed yesterday that shows Americans overwhelmingly oppose the deal to allow an Arab company to operate U.S. shipping ports. The new surveys from CBS News (story, Bush results, Katrina results) and the Cook...[More...]
Gallup & The Samplemiser
February 15, 2006
The latest poll release from Gallup includes what appears to be a new approach for reporting their data on the job approval rating of President George Bush. They include a "three-poll rolling average" as a "smoothed approval estimate" based on...[More...]
Bush Job Rating: No SOTU Bounce
February 14, 2006
Four organizations have now reported conventional national surveys since the State of the Union, and collectively they show little or no movement in the job rating of President George Bush. Once again, the annual address to Congress has produced no...[More...]
Pew Research Center: No Bounce
February 8, 2006
Another all too busy day at MP world headquarters leaves me just enough time to pass along links to the latest survey from the Pew Research Center (report, topline questionnaire, complete printable PDF, conducted Feb. 1-5, n=1,502 adults). The new...[More...]
SOTU Update: Putting it Into Context
February 6, 2006
I cannot help adding one more footnote to our discussion about "instant reaction" polls conducted after the State of the Union (SOTU) speech last week. One highly valued MP reader emailed to say I had wrongly implied that the networks...[More...]
SOTU Update: Nielsen Ratings
February 3, 2006
One of the big questions I have about the instant reaction polling on the State of the Union (SOTU) address is the size of the audience and how it has changed over the years. A release yesterday by Nielsen Media...[More...]
SOTU Instant Reaction Update
February 1, 2006
As expected, both Gallup and CBS News conducted instant analysis surveys among debate watchers last night. Last night, Gallup called back respondents they had interviewed a few days ago (1/29-30) and interviewed 465 who said they watched the speech (the...[More...]
SOTU: On Bounces and Spin
January 31, 2006
From the polling perspective, if recent history repeats itself, we can assume two things will occur after the President's State of the Union (SOTU) speech tonight. First, CNN/USAToday/Gallup and perhaps CBS News will conduct instant reaction polls among speech watchers...[More...]
Pre-SOTU Polls
January 30, 2006
The last week brought a batch of new surveys from the national pollsters. While these include new questions that go into great depth on perceptions of the state of the union, corruption in DC and NSA wiretapping, on balance they...[More...]
Diageo/Hotline Updates
January 21, 2006
A very busy end-of-week left me with only enough time to note the latest Diageo/Hotline poll which was released on Thursday (press release, results, presentation) that helps bring us up to on recent MP posts on outliers and Hillary Clinton's...[More...]
Polling on Impeachment - Part 1
January 19, 2006
At a town hall meeting in San Francisco on Monday, according to a report in the LA Times, Democratic Minority Leader. Nancy Pelosi had to shout "to be heard above the boos and catcalls" when she "rejected calls for President...[More...]
More Bush Job Rating Polls
January 17, 2006
Just have time to post links to a few new surveys that included the Bush job rating that I had not seen last week or that have been released since. These results are consistent with those summarized here last week....[More...]
On Fox, Pew, Outliers and the Bush Trend
January 13, 2006
Today I want to report with an assortment of observations relevant to our recent discussions of the Bush job rating and "house effects," including comments from Charles Franklin's Political Arithmetik on the recent Pew survey and a new poll from...[More...]
And Pew Makes Four
January 11, 2006
Tonight we have another national survey to consider, this one released earlier today by the Pew Research Center (report, topline questionnaire , crosstab tables, complete PDF). While the Pew report, as usual, covers a wide variety of topics and is...[More...]
Three New Polls
January 10, 2006
CBS News, ABC/Washington Post and Gallup/CNN/USAToday each released new surveys over the last 24 hours. The three polls each take in-depth looks at a variety of issues, including the Alito nomination, the NSA wiretaps, the Iraq War and the Abramoff/ethics...[More...]
'Twas the Survey Before Christmas...
December 23, 2005
As things wind down a bit before the holidays, I want to put a little perspective on our recent speculation about the trends in attitudes about President Bush. It may be helpful to think about two different questions: (1) Have...[More...]
Not Such An Outlier After All?
December 19, 2005
The Diageo/Hotline Poll...(story, press release, full results) shows a very different result for the Bush job rating: 50% approve, 47% disapprove. Is this, as our friend Professor Franklin asks, "a fluke or a harbinger?" MP guesses it's the former (and...[More...]
Outliers Happen
December 18, 2005
Two new national surveys released late last week add yet another wrinkle to the question of whether the approval ratings of President Bush are on the rise since late October, because they are at once very similar in methodology and...[More...]
Bush Bump-Up Stall?: Pew, NBC/WSJ & Zogby
December 15, 2005
Yesterday saw releases of two new national surveys by the Pew Research Center (report, questionnaire, tables) and NBC/Wall Street Journal (full results & coverage by WSJ and MSNBC). Combined with a new Zogby survey released on Monday, we now have...[More...]
Bush "Bump Up" Update: Gallup/CNN/USAToday
December 12, 2005
The National Journal is reporting this morning, via the (subscription only) Hotline Wake-Up Call, that the latest survey from Gallup shows: " Pres. Bush's approval rating at 43% among adults, up from 38% in late 11/05. 52% disapprove." Yesterday's video...[More...]
Bush "Bump Up" Update: CBS/NYTimes Poll
December 8, 2005
The latest CBS News/New York Times survey out this morning (conducted December 2-6) shows a five percentage point gain in President Bush's approval rating (from 35% to 40%), confirming similar gains apparent in other recent surveys. CBS characterizes it as...[More...]
More on Rasmussen
December 7, 2005
I want to follow-up briefly on one point raised by yesterday's post on recent patterns in the Bush job rating. Professor Franklin's graphic showed that the automated Rasmussen tracking poll have shown a consistently higher approval percentage than other polls...[More...]
A Bush Revival?
December 6, 2005
Are the Bush job approval numbers reviving? That is what a lot of MP's readers have been wondering, especially those who (like Mickey Kaus) follow the Rasmussen automated tracking survey, which has shown slight upward trend since late October (from...[More...]
Polling the "Strategy for Victory"
December 5, 2005
A story on the front of Sunday's New York Times shines new light on the work on support for the Iraq War by Chris Gelpi, Peter Feaver, and Jason Reifler that MP wrote about last summer. With the work of...[More...]
The RT Strategies Iraq Poll
December 2, 2005
Yesterday's front-page analysis of President Bush's Iraq speech earlier this week by the Washington Post's Peter Baker included a reference to some recent survey data: Administration officials believe much of the public is still eager for victory and open to...[More...]
Compared to What?.
November 15, 2005
And then there were nine. With the latest survey out last night from Gallup/CNN/USAToday, we now have nine national surveys released this month and all nine show lowest ever job ratings for President Bush. Again (for those who may have...[More...]
News Roundup: The Hits Keep on Coming
November 14, 2005
Last week, this site quietly passed the milestone of one million page views, as tracked by Sitemeter. Now as MP will be the first to note, the "page views" statistic may tell us more about the mechanical function of a...[More...]
Realignment or a "Crappy" Poll?
March 29, 2005
Last Friday, in the Today's Paper's feature, Slate's Eric Umansky observed: USA Today goes Page One with a poll showing President Bush's rating at a record-low 45 percent, seven points below what the paper had last week. USAT notes (with...[More...]
