We Agree
January 3, 2005
Speaking of Ruy (and putting on my partisan Democratic hat for a moment): On this topic, we completely agree.[More...]
"Final" Results
January 3, 2005
Some news from GMU Prof. Michael McDonald by way of Ruy Teixeira - the final tabulation of the national popular vote based on the "official" count: This tabulation includes roughly 5 million votes that were not included in the final...[More...]
NAES Reports on Hispanic Voters
December 21, 2004
The National Annenberg Election Survey (NAES) has just weighed in with its massive 81,422 interview rolling survey on the issue of Hispanic voter preference in the 2004 elections. They combined their rolling tracking surveys for the eight weeks before the...[More...]
Pew on "Moral Values"
November 12, 2004
The Pew Research Center released a new study yesterday, a follow-up interview with 1203 voters who were originally surveyed in October that sheds interesting new light on the “moral values” controversy. Pew conducted an experiment with the question that asked,...[More...]
MoralValues
November 7, 2004
Saturday's New York Times had three articles on the other big exit poll issue this week: The question that showed 22% of voters choosing "moral values" as the issue they were most concerned about. In an op-ed piece, ABC News...[More...]
First Impressions
November 3, 2004
As with any election, the results leave us much to sift through. Although the final counts are not yet available for all states, we can still reach some conclusions about two issues I raised that have also been the subject...[More...]
Allocating Undecideds
November 2, 2004
I started to do something this evening I haven't had a chance to do in several days, which is to simply browse other blogs and ponder where things stand. Naturally, I found myself quickly falling asleep. The curse of new...[More...]
Ohio: Back to the Future
November 1, 2004
There is one poll I have been dying to write about since I started this blog. It has a surprisingly strong track record and, as luck would have it, happens to survey only voters in Ohio, one of the most...[More...]
Are They Breaking Yet?
October 30, 2004
Looking for validation of the incumbent rule, more than a few readers (including Mickey Kaus and Noam Scheiber) have asked when we can expect to see undecided start "breaking" toward Kerry. My answer all along has been that we typically...[More...]
About Those Tracking Surveys
October 26, 2004
So admit it. At least once a day, possibly more often, you've been checking in on the various rolling-average tracking surveys. Most of us are. If you have been looking at more than one, the results over the last few...[More...]
Battleground States
October 22, 2004
Perhaps because I spend more time writing a blog these days and less time reading them, but I have seen very little attention given to this fact: In every poll which has released results for some definition of "battleground" states,...[More...]
Ohio
October 20, 2004
The main page on RealClearPolitics tonight shows a set of results for Ohio that has political junkies scratching their heads nationwide: OH: ABC: Kerry +3, FOX: Bush +5, Rasmussen: TIE, Ohio Poll: Kerry +2, SurveyUSA: Kerry +2 Why do the...[More...]
Poll of Polls
October 19, 2004
Alert reader JM tipped me off to the fact that Bill Schneider has reprised his "poll of polls" summary on CNN's Inside Politics. According to the transcript, Schneider combined the results of five surveys released this week by Gallup, ABC...[More...]
The Race Tightens
October 10, 2004
As long as I'm back on the topic of debates, it is worth remembering that media coverage of the debate typically has more impact than the immediate reaction of debate viewers. In the ten days since the first debate on...[More...]
More on the Incumbent Rule
October 8, 2004
Several readers took strong exception to my discussion of the incumbent rule, the idea that undecided voters tend to "break" toward the incumbentchallenger just before Election Day. Gerry (of Daly Thoughts) was most succinct: We are a month away from...[More...]
The Incumbent Rule
October 3, 2004
In discussing recent poll results, I said last week that I tend to focus most on President Bush's job rating and percentage of the vote (which tend to track closely with each other), adding, "that both are hovering just at...[More...]
The Newsweek Poll
October 3, 2004
Newsweek Magazine released a survey last night, "the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample” of all registered voters nationally since Thursday night’s debate. The results, if taken at face value, are highly encouraging for the Democrats, showing Kerry...[More...]
Where does the presidential race stand today?
September 28, 2004
I comment from time to time on what the polls are saying about where the presidential race stands. Click on this link to display short excerpts of all of the posts discussing the current status of the 2004 race in...[More...]
Little Change in September
September 28, 2004
Virtually every national survey organization following the presidential race released new surveys in the last four days. Is there any sign of a change during September? The rolling averages on RealClearPolitics have not changed much, but as they simply average...[More...]
