Incumbent Rule Redux

August 14, 2006

Time to revisit "incumbent rule," thanks to Mickey Kaus who highlighted this observation last week by Michael Barone's column in U.S. News & World Report: It may be time to revise one of the cardinal rules of poll interpretation--that an...[More...]


Connecticut Epilogue

August 9, 2006

The nearly final 3.6% margin by which Ned Lamont defeated Joe Lieberman in yesterday's Connecticut Senate Primary (with 98% of precincts counted, Lamont leads 51.8% to 48.2%) was certainly closer than the margins on the final public polls. The two...[More...]


CT: No Exit Polls Today (Make that One Exit Poll - See Updates)

August 8, 2006

I noticed several hundred (at least) incoming Google searches on various combination of "Connecticut exit poll Lieberman Lamont," so let me pass on the official word regarding today's Connecticut primary from ABC's The Note: "There are no pooled network exit...[More...]


A Lesson Learned the Hard Way

August 8, 2006

For those waiting on the results of the today's Connecticut primary, here is a cautionary tale about the limits of polling in a primary election. Four years ago this week, I learned a lesson the hard way about what pre-election...[More...]


Still More Connecticut

August 7, 2006

Quinnipiac has released another poll in Connecticut this morning that has the political web sites buzzing, perhaps a bit too much. While the latest survey shows Ned Lamont leading by closer margin than their last survey, the differences are small...[More...]


CT Sen: Another Quinnipiac Poll

August 4, 2006

By now it seems that the entire political blogosphere has taken note of the latest Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut primary voters showing Net Lamont leading Joe Lieberman by 13 points (54% to 41%). Much of the commentary I have seen...[More...]


The NPR Survey and the Race for Control of Congress

August 1, 2006

Of the many national polls released last week, the most intriguing was the survey released by NPR of likely voters in the 50 competitive congressional districts (story, report). Two campaign pollsters -- Republican Glenn Bolger and Democrat Stan Greenberg --...[More...]


Quinnipiac's Latest Connecticut Poll

July 21, 2006

It’s been a busy week, with far more interesting topics than I have had time to blog. Let's start with the Quinnipiac Poll released yesterday that puts Ned Lamont ahead of Sen. Joe Lieberman among likely Democratic primary voters in...[More...]


Connecticut Primary Polls: No Easy Task

July 10, 2006

For all the attention paid lately to the Connecticut's upcoming Democratic primary election between Senator Joseph Lieberman and challenger Ned Lamont, public polls on the race remain few and far between. That scarcity may owe something to the huge challenge...[More...]


Generic Ballot: What Does it Measure?

May 25, 2006

Several readers have asked for my opinion on the so-called "generic vote" or "generic ballot" asked on national surveys to gauge Congressional vote preference. Given the obvious inability to tailor a national question to match 435 individual House races, this...[More...]