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October 05, 2005

First Miers Reaction from Gallup

This morning brings a new Gallup/CNN/USAToday poll conducted Monday and Tuesday evenings (10/3-4) with reaction to the Harriet Miers nomination.   Both the USAToday and CNN stories emphasize that Americans are less enthusiastic about Miers than they were of John Roberts Forty-four percent (44%) rate her an excellent or good choice, 41% rate her only fair or poor.  By comparison, 51% rated Roberts excellent or good just after his nomination, 34% only fair or poor.

The in-depth Gallup summary (available to non-subscribers today only) reveals the usual partisan polarization.  Republicans overwhelmingly approve Miers (72% positive, 16% negative, 12% don't know), Democrats disapprove (24% positive, 62% negative, 14% don't know). CNN adds similar results by ideology, but with an important twist:  Conservatives were nineteen percentage points happier about Roberts (77% positive, 13% negative) than Miers (58% positive, 29% negative).   The difference is big enough that it suggests to MP that liberals and moderates are reacting to Miers much as they did to Roberts.  Only self described conservatives appear to be significantly less enthusiastic.  Perhaps Gallup can confirm with more complete cross-tabs?  [Update:  they did just that -- see below].

Even more tantalizing is this nugget available only in the Gallup summary only:  The difference in the "excellent" rating for Roberts (25%) and Miers (12%) is more than double than the difference of the combined excellent and good rating (again, 51% for Roberts, 44% for Miers).  MP wonders how those results look when tabulated by ideology and party.

The Gallup summary has much more.   Read it all, while you can. 

Note:  A table in the Gallup summary labels the first Roberts poll as having been conducted from July 22-24, which would have been 3-5 days after his nomination.  However, an earlier Gallup report suggests that those dates may have been in error as the data cited above appear to come from a survey Gallup conducted on July 20, one night after the Roberts nomination. Update:  Gallup has corrected the typo that originally appeared in their report.  The data on John  Roberts were from a survey conducted on July 20, two days after the annoucement of his nomination. 

UPDATE: - The folks at Gallup kindly forwarded a cross-tab via email which I used to create the following table:


Sure enough, liberals and moderates have virtually the same immedate reaction to John Roberts and Harriet Miers in terms of the combined excellent/good vs. only fair/poor response.  Self described conservatives show a big, statistically significant difference (77% vs. 58%).  Note also the 29-point difference in the excellent rating among conservatives -- 49% for Roberts, only 20% for Miers.

Related Entries - Polls in the News

Posted by Mark Blumenthal on October 5, 2005 at 09:58 AM in Polls in the News | Permalink


The findings concerning the nominee's gender are more interesting.

Most people, 66%, are neither positive nor negative about the fact that Miers is a woman.

In my conversations with friends and associates about the Miers nomination, I have noticed that women are much less likely to object to the nomination than men. Gallup reports women are nearly twice as likely than men to be impressed with Miers because she is a woman.

Posted by: California Yankee | Oct 5, 2005 1:40:14 PM

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