I am at work on the second part of the series looking at RFK, Jr. on exit polls, but will likely be bogged down by the “day job” for the afternoon. Those who need a polling fix might want to check out the latest free-for-today-only analysis from Gallup, and an ever-free video briefing that looks the possibility that the Bush job approval rating may be showing "modest improvement" over the last month. Gallup’s surveys showed the Bush approval rating declining steady from 37% in early April to 31% on a survey conducted in the first week of May. However, it has increased slightly on the last two samplings – 33% on a poll conducted May 8-11 and 36% in a survey done just over the weekend (June 1-4). The Gallup analysis hedges a bit, pointing out that "even with the slight improvement, Bush’s ratings remain among the worst of his presidency."
Gallup’s five-point increase in the Bush approval rating (from 31% to 36%) appears to be statistically significant, but I have not looked closely at trends over May among other pollsters. A quick glance at the RealClearPolitics compilation shows that both CBS and Fox News conducted surveys in both early and mid-May that showed not quite significant changes in opposite directions — CBS showed a four point increase (from 31% to 35); Fox showed a three point decline (from 38% to 35%). And the Rasmussen automated telephone tracking shows virtually no change since April.
The next update of Professor Franklin‘s job approval tracking graphic should be interesting.
UPDATE: Well, that didn’t take long. Franklin’s post is up, and the trend in the Bush job rating has either flattened or turned up slightly, depending on which regression model you place more faith.
One simple advice for President Bush: “DO ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!” Because whatever he does between now and the end of his presidency could simply rile up alot of people publically and politically, not just liberals and moderates, but also conservatives as well, given the bad things that had already happened under his watch.