August 22, 2006

Last week I discovered an interesting new blog devoted to political polling called Actually, is something of a blog within a blog, a site nestled within the conservative site RedState.comorg. It combines frequent posts from blogger Gerry Daly...[More...]

Incumbent Rule Redux

August 14, 2006

Time to revisit "incumbent rule," thanks to Mickey Kaus who highlighted this observation last week by Michael Barone's column in U.S. News & World Report: It may be time to revise one of the cardinal rules of poll interpretation--that an...[More...]

News Roundup

December 10, 2004

So many good topics, so little time. Several items appeared in the past 48 hours that are worth passing along. Slate's David Kenner and William Saletan did a post-election review of the issues raised in their pre-election consumer's guide to...[More...]

First Impressions

November 3, 2004

As with any election, the results leave us much to sift through. Although the final counts are not yet available for all states, we can still reach some conclusions about two issues I raised that have also been the subject...[More...]

Allocating Undecideds

November 2, 2004

I started to do something this evening I haven't had a chance to do in several days, which is to simply browse other blogs and ponder where things stand. Naturally, I found myself quickly falling asleep. The curse of new...[More...]

Are They Breaking Yet?

October 30, 2004

Looking for validation of the incumbent rule, more than a few readers (including Mickey Kaus and Noam Scheiber) have asked when we can expect to see undecided start "breaking" toward Kerry. My answer all along has been that we typically...[More...]

Incumbent Rule: A Caution and a Plea

October 21, 2004

As many of you may have discovered the "incumbent rule" (and this site) through yesterday's post on Ohio, I want to add one important point: But be careful not to make the same mistake some made back in August and...[More...]


October 20, 2004

The main page on RealClearPolitics tonight shows a set of results for Ohio that has political junkies scratching their heads nationwide: OH: ABC: Kerry +3, FOX: Bush +5, Rasmussen: TIE, Ohio Poll: Kerry +2, SurveyUSA: Kerry +2 Why do the...[More...]

More on the Incumbent Rule

October 8, 2004

Several readers took strong exception to my discussion of the incumbent rule, the idea that undecided voters tend to "break" toward the incumbentchallenger just before Election Day. Gerry (of Daly Thoughts) was most succinct: We are a month away from...[More...]

The Incumbent Rule

October 3, 2004

In discussing recent poll results, I said last week that I tend to focus most on President Bush's job rating and percentage of the vote (which tend to track closely with each other), adding, "that both are hovering just at...[More...]