September 28, 2004
How do pollsters select "likely voters?"
I have done a lot of posting on this topic. If you want a very thorough reading, start with Part I and continue through the series. You might also want to skip to Part VIII, which is something of a guide to the likely voter models used by all the major polling organizations:
- The Why & How of Likely Voters - Part I
- The Why & How of Likely Voters - Part II
- The Why & How of Likely Voters - Part III
- Likely Voters IV - The Gallup Model
- Likely Voters V: More Gallup
- Likely Voters VI: Still More on Gallup
- Likely Voters VII: CBS/NYT
- Likely Voters VIII: Users Guide to Everybody Else
Also,you can click on this link to display short excerpts of all of the posts concerning likely voters in reverse chronological order (most recent first).
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