The National Journal is reporting this morning, via the (subscription only) Hotline Wake-Up Call, that the latest survey from Gallup shows: " Pres. Bush‘s approval rating at 43% among adults, up from 38% in late
11/05. 52% disapprove." Yesterday’s video briefing by Gallup’s Frank Newport again promised the release today of results from than 2,000 interivews.
Thus, we have three conventional polls (Fox, CBS/NYT and Gallup) that confirm the trend in the Rasmussen automated survey.
Update (12/13): USAToday now has a story and full results posted, as does CNN. Interestingly, Gallup released Bush job rating results from two different surveys on Monday. The early report, showing Bush with a job rating of 43% approve, 52% disapprove came from a survey of 1,013 adults conducted last week (12/5-8). The results released later by CNN and USAToday — showing Bush with a job rating of 42% approve and 55% disapprove — came from a second survey of 1,003 adults conducted from Thursday to Sunday last week (12/9-11).
Gallup has not yet posted their official summary of the second survey. However, readers should note that first survey was a bit more Republican than others Gallup has reported recently. The composition of the first survey was 36% Republican, 31% Democrat, 31% independent. The percentage of GOP identifiers was the most on a Gallup survey since February. Other Gallup surveys released since September have reported the GOP percentages between 30% and 33%.
The story by USAToday‘s Susan Page offered this analysis of what may be driving the increase in the Bush ratings:
Bush’s rating rose by 3 to 6 percentage points
for his handling of a half-dozen specific issues, though he gets
majority approval only on the issue of terrorism. Most Americans
disapprove of his handling of the economy, by 58%-40%, and of the
situation in Iraq, by 59%-39%.
His biggest jump was a 6-point rise in approval
for his handling of gas and home heating prices — still a dismal 28%
approve-67% disapprove.
The CNN story notes that the Iraq rating was up three points over the same period:
Nearly three out of five Americans, 59 percent, said they
disapproved of the way Bush is handling Iraq; 39 percent said they
approve.
The approval number is up slightly from last month, when
a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found 63 percent of Americans disapproved
of the administration’s Iraq policy and 35 percent said they approved.
In September, 32 percent said they approved of Bush’s handling of Iraq.
Late Update: Gallup’s official summary of the 12/9-11 survey by David Moore is now up along with a video briefing by Frank Newport (both should remain free to non-subscribers until Wednesday) . Both offer a "broader interpretation" of what is driving the recent increase in the overall Bush job rating. Here is Moore’s take:
On the economy, Bush’s rating is up three percentage points since
the Nov. 11-13 poll (37% to 40%); on Iraq up four points (35% to 39%);
on terrorism up four points (48% to 52%); and on foreign affairs up
five points (37% to 42%).
Other polls have also shown an increase in Bush’s standing among the
public, with some commentators suggesting the improvement is related
not to Iraq but to the economy. The poll results here suggest perhaps
an even broader interpretation — that Bush’s improvement may be
related to his making a more aggressive defense of his administration,
regardless of the specific issue. With slight to modest increases
across the various issues noted above, it would appear that many
Americans (mostly independents) have more positive views of the
president overall, not just on the way he is handling the war in Iraq.
Also, MP overlooked a new AP-IPSOS survey released last Friday (conducted 12/5-7 among 1,002 adults, topline results here and here) that showed the Bush job rating increasing to 42% from 37% in early November.
Finally, the Cook Political Report and RT Strategies released results from a new survey (topline and press release) conducted among 1,000 adults from December 8-11 showing the Bush job rating at 42% approve, 55% disapprove.
Are these polls really of “adults?” When did they switch, and couldn’t that explain at least part of Bush’s relative decline?
I’m willing to accept that Bush’s overall ratinbg is 40-42, which gallup would suggest is about where he’s been. I’d be surprised if it went up or down much out of a narrow window (similar to what Rasmussen does, 42-47% range except gallup is a few points lower as MP previously wrote about).
But these numbers are pretty dismal. And if other scandals break (Abramoff, Plame), look for Bush to drop a few more points. any focus back on NOLA might do the same. IOW, I see more downside than upside.
Sean: All the public polls we have been discussing report the Bush job rating among U.S. adults and have done so throughout 2005. The only exceptions I’m aware of are the Fox Opinion Dynamics survey (which reports on self-described registered voters) and the Zogby poll(which screens for “likely voters).
Is it good?