Are They Breaking Yet?

Incumbent Rule Legacy blog posts The 2004 Race

Looking for validation of the incumbent rule, more than a few readers (including Mickey Kaus and Noam Scheiber) have asked when we can expect to see undecided start “breaking” toward Kerry. My answer all along has been that we typically see the phenomenon between the last survey and when the ballots are counted.

The theory behind the rule is that those who tell pollsters they are undecided are conflicted: ready to fire the incumbent but still possessing strong doubts about the challenger. In the end, their feelings about the incumbent typically win out, because the incumbent’s performance in office is much more central to their ultimate decision. So my hunch (not informed by empirical data) is that the break either occurs at the very last moment or is simply something a voter would rather not admit to a stranger on the phone.

As such, I think Kaus is on to something when he wonders about an “embarrassment” factor that might limit Kerry more on telephone surveys but not on automated, recorded interviews like those done by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen. I think I see evidence of this in the polls by SurveyUSA in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. In each of those states, SUSA has Bush matching the RealClearPolitics average but has Kerry running a few points higher. Their surveys always show a lowerhigher undecided than most other surveys, and Jay Leve, SurveyUSA’s director has always speculated it is because their recorded interview better simulates the solitary experience the voting booth. At the same time, I see an opposite pattern in Iowa, Missouri and Colorado – so perhaps I’m just data mining. I want to watch this closely over the weekend.

Nonetheless, a hedge: The best empirical evidence for incumbent rule lies in the surveys gathered by Nick Panagakis, Chris Bowers and Guy Moleneux. I do not have access to their spreadsheets, but I am assuming that most of the surveys they reviewed were fielded during the last calendar week before the election the rather than over the final weekend. Also, campaign pollsters like me believe in the incumbent rule because of our own experience with internal surveys that we almost always complete before the final weekend. So it is possible we may see some signs of a break over the weekend. Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t

When we all started talking about the incumbent rule three weeks ago, there were two key counterarguments. One was that an examination of older Gallup polls showed a number of elections in which incumbents gained during September or October. As Kaus noted, Pat Caddell has made a similar argument. Even if you do not see my point about the incumbent rule working at the end of the campaign, I think we can put that argument to rest. John Kerry gained significant support after the first debate and, once you factor in sampling error, the overall preferences have barely budged since.

Consider an update to my poll of polls approach to the four nightly tracking surveys (by ABC, Zogby, TIPP and Rasmussen). Individually, they have shown small insignificant movement. But average all four and they look remarkably flat. If anything, Kerry may have gained a point in the last few days.

If that finding does not persuade (the tracking polls are all weighted by party, after all), consider the six organizations that polled both last week and this week. Average all six and the results for each week look nearly identical: Bush led by an average of four points last week (49% to 45%) and an average of three points this week (49% to 46%). Bush has not gained. Once again, if anything, Kerry picked up a point. If the averages seem inappropriate given the usual slight differences between organizations (sample sizes, dates, question language, etc.), consider this: Three surveys showed Bush doing slightly better this week, three showed him doing slightly worse. That’s exactly what you’d expect if you flipped a coin six times (Note: Democracy Corps actually conducted six standalone surveys over this period. For the table, I simply calculated separate averages for the first three and the second three).

The second argument is that 9/11 and the Iraq War renders the incumbent rule moot. The theory is that conflicted voters will opt to stick with the incumbent rather than “changing horses midstream.” Those who make this argument typically point to a number of races in 2002 where undecided voters appeared to break for incumbents. I remain skeptical — this election looks nothing like 2002 to me — but we will not know for sure until Tuesday night. Given that Osama bin Laden has reared his evil head once again, 9/11 will certainly be on a lot of minds over the weekend. If nothing else, the counter-argument will get a fair test.

One last thought, as we ponder the final 72 hours of the campaign. Four years ago, pollsters like me looked at the polls released the Friday before Election Day and concluded that the race was over. George Bush looked to be on his way to a comfortable victory. As the table below shows, the polls that day had Bush ahead of Al Gore by an average of five points (47% to 42%). Of course, the Bush DUI story broke that same day. By Monday, seven of the eight surveys that continued to track over the weekend showed a Gore closing the margin to an average of one point (Bush led 46% to 45%).

I include this data not because I expect a repeat of Gore’s late surge but to remind everyone that, as Yogi Berra says, “it ain’t over till it’s over.”

[Appropriate table inserted for 2000 polls – 10/31]
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Mark Blumenthal

Mark Blumenthal is the principal at MysteryPollster, LLC. With decades of experience in polling using traditional and innovative online methods, he is uniquely positioned to advise survey researchers, progressive organizations and candidates and the public at-large on how to adapt to polling’s ongoing reinvention. He was previously head of election polling at SurveyMonkey, senior polling editor for The Huffington Post, co-founder of Pollster.com and a long-time campaign consultant who conducted and analyzed political polls and focus groups for Democratic party candidates.